It is a great pity that the proposals and counter-proposals of the Ukrainian and Russian governments in recent days have been mostly a show for the benefit of Donald Trump. For if the two sides really would sit down to talk in Istanbul as they did in March 2022, there might be a chance of bringing the war to an end.
This furious bout of diplomatic tennis has been caused by Trump’s threat to “walk away” from the peace process if the two sides do not agree soon. Both are desperate that if this happens, he should blame the other for the failure. If he blames Kyiv, then US military and intelligence aid to Ukraine will be suspended, greatly weakening the country’s war effort. If he blames Moscow, then this aid will continue. Whether it would halt the Russian advance is not clear, but it would certainly help the Ukrainians to slow it down and to go on inflicting heavy casualties on enemy forces. Moscow also hopes that even if the Ukraine peace talks break down, the Trump administration will still seek cooperation with Russia in other areas.
The latest diplomatic serve has been Zelensky’s proposal that Putin meet him for direct talks in Istanbul on Thursday (Putin had previously suggested that Ukrainian and Russian negotiators meet there). It is not clear, however, if the Ukrainian leader is still demanding Russia must first declare a 30-day ceasefire in order for this to happen. Since Russia now has the military advantage, it would mean that it would have to give up its main point of leverage in talks. And if — as is almost certain — the talks did not reach agreement and Russia resumed the war, it would be seen by Trump (and perhaps most of the world) as wholly responsible for the war’s continuation.
If Zelensky is willing to drop this condition, then Putin should go. Even if they spent most of the time shouting at each other, something might be achieved; and the refusal of world leaders to talk to each other is simply childish. On that score, if Putin did turn up in Istanbul he would theoretically be liable to arrest for war crimes on the warrant of the International Criminal Court. In practice, Turkey would ignore this, just as most Western countries have in practice managed to ignore the war crimes charges against Israel. Nonetheless, this is an example of how sanctimonious European legalism, heavily flavoured with hypocrisy, can complicate international diplomacy.
While Trump has failed to bring the two sides to a settlement, and the war will continue, it is worth noting that his administration has achieved a good deal in the past three months. As of January, Kyiv’s official position was that it would not negotiate with the Putin administration at all, unless Russia first withdrew completely from all the territory it has occupied in Ukraine since 2014 — a completely pointless proposition. Russia, for its part, has now accepted that Ukraine has the right to join the European Union — something which, if it can be achieved, would be of far greater economic benefit to Kyiv than Nato membership.
If Ukraine and Russia can finally agree to meet and talk without preconditions, then Istanbul is a good place to do so. The March 2022 talks in Turkey did not reach an agreement, but they seem to have made real progress on some of the basic terms for any realistically conceivable settlement. Among them is the stipulation that Ukraine should be neutral with international guarantees; that Russia should remain in occupation of certain territories, but that their legal status should be deferred to future negotiation; that Kyiv can accept certain limits on its armed forces, but not to the point where its defences would be seriously undermined; and that any guarantees concerning the linguistic and cultural rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine must be matched by guarantees for Ukrainians in Russia.
A meeting in Turkey won’t end the war overnight, but it could restart the only serious path to peace. The outlines of a deal already exist. What’s missing is the political will. If Putin and Zelensky are serious about ending the bloodshed, they should sit down and talk.